Petrol and diesel ban 2035

[GlosRich]

With the news that sales of new Petrol and diesel cars will stop in the UK in 2035, what do we all think the future will be for our current petrol Porsches?

 

They don’t really make it clear what the policy is on existing vehicles do they…..

 

There has to be some ‘mechanism’ (probably tax or laws!) to get people to move to EVs, or they will just keep using their old cars for as long as possible, which wont get us to being Carbon neutral.

 

Whether certain vehicles can be registered as ‘historic’ and limited to low miles each year, but anything doing say more than 2k miles a year has to be an EV or hydrogen?

 

Discuss.

 

 

 

[Windymiller]

I can’t see the EV charging infrastructure being sufficiently in place to support an ‘all electric’ personal vehicle society in the U.K. by 2035 - sounds like a long time from now, but it’s only 15years away. 
 

The U.K. ‘typically’ uses about 50GW of power per day currently, just powering industry, boiling kettles, keeping the lights, TV, central heating / aircon on, running train networks etc. 
 

A rapid charging point uses 100kW. 
There are 31.5 million cars in the U.K. (of which currently <1% are EV). 

 

Let’s assume 50% of them are EV by 2035. And that 50% of those need charging each day = 7.875 million cars. 
 

7,875,000 cars x 100kW = 787.5GW. 

 

Clearly we have some way to go before the UKs electrical network could cope with a nation of EVs.  I suspect ‘legacy’ combustion engine cars remain safe for quite some time to come...

 

Caveat - not every car will be charging at the same time. Not every car will use a rapid (commercial) charger - many will use  much lower power domestic charges overnight ~5kW.   But even if half those  7.8m cars charged slowly overnight - we’d still need 3,900,000 cars x 5kW = 20GW of power generation capacity in the U.K. every night just for car charging! 

 

ive been in large scale (offshore wind) renewables for 10 years now and in that time seen U.K. installed (offshore wind) generation capacity increase 6-fold from ~1.4GW to ~8.4GW. There are currently 30,000 commercial charging points in the U.K. so we need a 10-100 fold increase in charging points in the next 15 years...

 

(think I’d better go build another wind farm 🤔😯😁👍🏻)

[Daz]

Hi I've been dong a lot of reading into EV's and the impact on the grid. Ex power station worker and decided to get an EV.  Jag I pace on order. So generally interested.

 

What they believe is the electricity tarif's will become far more intelligent I.e vary rates so that people charge EV's at lower load times. The charge points will become more intelligent and recognise cheaper rates. Currently peak load is 50-60GW but base load overnight can be as low as 30GW. If people charge at low load times we should be ok.

 

 

Time will tell. Hopefully the lights don't go out. 

 

Better get building  more of those those wind farms just in case.

[Windymiller]

10 minutes ago, Daz said:

Hi I've been dong a lot of reading into EV's and the impact on the grid. Ex power station worker and decided to get an EV.  Jag I pace on order. So generally interested.

 

What they believe is the electricity tarif's will become far more intelligent I.e vary rates so that people charge EV's at lower load times. The charge points will become more intelligent and recognise cheaper rates. Currently peak load is 50-60GW but base load overnight can be as low as 30GW. If people charge at low load times we should be ok.

 

 

Time will tell. Hopefully the lights don't go out. 

 

Better get building  more of those those wind farms just in case.

Of course anything is possible with sufficient will and finance. 😉👍🏻
 

And ‘smart grids’ could help with managing variable supply and demand loads on the grid, assuming everything connected to it (ie EVs) are smart themselves. 
 

The U.K. is a hugely car dependent country / society; attempting to transition those 31.5m cars (even more no doubt by 2035) to EV (+ vans / lorries etc) AND implement sufficient charging network infrastructure to support them all in the next 15years is, I would proffer, somewhat unlikely. 
 

im not anti EVs at all - but it would be like saying everyone in the country must have a 5G smart phone, but then not have the 5G cellular network in place to enable their usage. The product would be unusable. 
 

I would estimate 30+ years of smart grid system and energy generation infrastructure development before the U.K. could fully support an EV driven (poor pun intended) society. 😯

 

By which time my 987 should be worth £178.6m...... 😮🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣😉

[Ben]

My other half recently bought a Toyota Yaris hybrid and I have to say as a commuting tool its ideal - I find myself trying to keep it in electric only mode for as long as possible with tiny prods of the accelerator - the complete opposite to when I take the Cayman out for a spin!  So I'm OK with a primarily electric car future as long as there is still a place for old codgers like me who need their combustion engine fix at the weekend!

[GlosRich]

Some good points raised. Yes the power capacity of the UK is currently not sufficient to support a complete changeover.

 

There could also be some grants for people to install solar panels and batteries such as Tesla power-wall to help generate their own energy to charge a car from.

 

My initial question was more about how long we will be allowed to use our petrol engined cars, and if they might be restricted in mileage, petrol might become very expensive, and I guess clean air zones will prohibit their use in urban areas, which is fair enough.

 

What impact this might have on values, for those of us who have Caymans as 2nd cars, and maybe hope to keep them long term?

 

 

[GlosRich]

I think residents of urban areas will also have no choice but to use public transport, as clean air zones and congestion charges will make private car ownership difficult. 

 

Also the rise of services such as Uber will make it cheaper to order a cab, which will be an EV.

[Leo31291]

With the amount of money made from fuel I wonder how they'll try and tax EVs.

[jaketame]

8 hours ago, Leo31291 said:

With the amount of money made from fuel I wonder how they'll try and tax EVs.

Will be a tax on electric

[Leo31291]

17 hours ago, jaketame said:

Will be a tax on electric

 

What if you only charge at home ? Road tax will have to apply sooner or later to EVs.

[GlosRich]

7 hours ago, Leo31291 said:

 

What if you only charge at home ? Road tax will have to apply sooner or later to EVs.

 

Lets face it electricity prices will rise as demand for it will massively increase. Will make having solar panels more viable, and necessary.

 

 

[jaketame]

2 hours ago, GlosRich said:

 

Lets face it electricity prices will rise as demand for it will massively increase. Will make having solar panels more viable, and necessary.

 

 

Agree with this, over next 5-10 years Solar panels should become more efficient, storage of said electricity should become the normal and the £5k-10k you spend should be noticed in savings over a shorter time period. Estimated is around 20 years for payback at the moment.